Welcome to October Surprise, the Daily Beast’s daily countdown to the biggest election of our lifetime. It’s only 35 days until Election Day and here’s what’s happening in the race to the White House between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Subscribe here to receive this first in your inbox.
THE DOWNLOAD
Whatever they say about their talking points for the vice presidential debate, JD Vance and Tim Walz each have one goal for Tuesday evening: to win.
With Donald Trump, the 78-year-old Republican nominee who has survived multiple assassination attempts, running against Vice President Kamala Harris, a newly-crowned Democratic nominee, the face-off between the Number Two candidates could be the most important ever.
Both campaigns are certain to position their candidate as the debate’s winner. Here’s the Daily Beast’s guide to six measures that will help viewers tease out who really won.
Ahead of tonight’s vice presidential debate, the last person to stare down JD Vance on stage—former Ohio congressman Tim Ryan—offered cautionary advice to Tim Walz as he readies to take on the Yale Law grad.
Ryan, a Democrat who lost a Senate race against Vance by 6 points in 2022, favorably contrasted Vance’s debate style with that of his running mate, former President Donald Trump, on Slate’s “What Next” podcast today.
One key difference—which Walz needs to watch out for—is Vance’s ability to smoothly “pivot” from an unfavorable issue to one he can more easily talk about, Ryan said.
Spinmeisters in both parties are ready to pounce on reporters and airwaves to make the case that their guy came out on top.
Vance is the closest any vice presidential candidate has come to being the proverbial heartbeat away from the presidency following one actual and several foiled assassination attempts against Donald Trump. And Trump-Vance surrogates, including the GOP nominee’s own son, Donald Trump Jr., will be on hand in the spin room after the high-stakes debate in New York ready to explain why Vance not only won the debate—even if he actually didn’t—but deserves to be vice president more than Walz, and claim the throne of first in the presidential line of succession.
The junior Trump was one of Vance’s prime advocates during the veepstakes contest, pushing his father to select his close friend, the Ohio senator, despite some donors’ concerns. Multiple assassination attempts later, Don Jr. told Fox News he felt “totally vindicated” by the pick.
POLLS OBSESSED
North Carolina is proving to be a tougher nut to crack for Kamala Harris than her campaign might have hoped for, given that the governor’s race is a disaster for Republicans. A Washington Post poll puts Donald Trump on 50 to Harris’ 48 among likely voters. In contrast Mark Robinson, the Republican gubernatorial candidate is trailing Josh Stein 54 to 38 among the same pool, amid the fallout from his alleged “Black Nazi perv” posts.
A New York Post poll has Harris leading by 4 points nationwide, while a Morning Consult national poll has Harris up by 5 points.
ON THE MOVE
Vance and Walz are in New York for their one-and-only live showdown on stage, which is the final scheduled debate for any candidate in the presidential race until Election Day. Trump rallied supporters in Wisconsin while Harris attended meetings at the White House in her official capacity as vice president.
THROWBACK TUESDAY
On Oct. 1, 2020, we got the first glimpse of Sacha Baron Cohen’s Borat sequel (full name Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery Of Prodigious Bribe To American Regime For Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation Of Kazakhstan) with his character pranking Republicans.
The trailer showed him trying to marry his daughter off to Vice President Mike Pence at CPAC and calling him “Mike Pennis.” Of course that was tame compared to the infamous Rudy Giuliani clip which later emerged.
BEAST OF THE DAY
Kellyanne Conway, the former adviser to former president Donald Trump, said Monday that she’s goading her erstwhile boss to “get back in there” and debate Vice President Kamala Harris again.
Trump—who polls show was widely seen as the loser of last month’s presidential debate hosted by ABC—has rejected calls for a rematch, dismissing an October 23 CNN debate that Harris has agreed to as “too late.”
Conway, however, said the attention-loving Trump won’t be able to resist his need to have the last word in all things after he sees Tuesday’s vice presidential sparring match between his running mate JD Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
SHAMELESS PLUG
After tonight’s debate you’ll need to reach for some comedic relief so check out The Last Laugh with the Daily Beast’s own Matt Wilstein and his special guest comedian and actress Lauren Lapkus.
Listen to the episode now and follow The Last Laugh on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google, or wherever you get your podcasts to be the first to hear new episodes when they are released every Wednesday.
