Adrian Wenner has somehow managed to be a working screenwriter in Hollywood for 25 years. He’s written on shows you’ve heard of like New Girl and Grey’s Anatomy, but he’s much prouder of getting a laugh out of Steve Martin at an improv show once.
There are age-old maxims in American politics that just seem to hold true: “Older people vote in higher percentages.” “Rainy election days favor Republicans.” “Trump supporters are coy, shrinking violets.”
[Record scratch]
Within the liturgy of astonishing proclamations from the Trump circus, one relatively minor refrain bedevils me. Lately, when I tune in to the bleating heads of cable news, there’s a chin-stroking beltway pundit or outright Trump apologist curling out the dogma: “We don’t put much stock in a poll showing Kamala leading, because everyone knows Trump voters are much less likely to admit their preference to pollsters.” (I am paraphrasing, of course.)
They assert, with an obvious pride either in their own gnostic understanding of America, or in the special devotion of the MAGA faithful, that Trump voters choose to keep their fandom of Trump secret—the so-called “shy Trump voter.” This theory has been around since 2016, and whether there is evidence for it has been debated from the inception.
Indeed, the notional Shy Trump Voter character doesn’t fit the facts of his support. We see his rallies, his merchandising, his insurrection, and the credulous daily reports in the New York Times and Washington Post from Ohio diners and other “real” parts of America. Trump’s movement is ethno-nationalist: A defining characteristic is its need to be noticed, to stand up and be counted, to assert its rightful dominance in the country.
Yet we are expected to believe that having bought the hat, the bumper sticker, the car flag, and the chintzy sneakers, the Trump supporter would hide his light under a bushel when surveyed anonymously for the purpose of gauging and publicizing how powerful his tribe actually is.
But then there’s this poll which finds, “61 percent of Americans admit to ‘self-silencing’—keeping their true opinions on sensitive topics to themselves.”
So let’s assume there’s something to it. Say a percentage of Trump voters are indeed “shy” or to use the more Orwellian term, “self-silencing.” Perhaps they’re just lying. Either way, they don’t feel comfortable telling another living, breathing human being or internet questionnaire that they support D.J. Trump. Let that sink in.
What possible reasons could there be for this behavior? I can think of three:
1) They know voting for Trump is a morally reprehensible act and don’t want to admit it to strangers. Who knows? Maybe their kid will overhear them. Maybe their pet dog is looking up at them, and their self-loathing at such a notion is perfectly projected in that pooch’s seemingly judgmental glare.
2) They have a deep belief that such an important choice should be a private matter. (For some reason they’re also compelled to remain on a 20-minute phone call answering “undecided” instead of hanging up.)
3) They believe in Trump and don’t care who knows it, BUT they are soooo clever, they know if they lie to the polls, the Democrats will be lulled into a false sense of… I can’t even finish this “4D chess” explanation with a straight face.
Then-President Donald Trump speaks at swearing in ceremonies for new CIA Director Gina Haspel at the headquarters of the Central Intelligence Agency in Langley, Virginia, U.S. May 21, 2018.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
I think #1 is a pretty clear-cut winner, yes?
Now, I’ve looked back, and I cannot find much in the way of “shy voters” for other candidates. Not von Hindenburg. Not Stalin. Not Mugabe. Not even Nixon. (In 1992, pollsters posited a “shy Tory factor” leading to the surprise election victory of then-British Prime Minister John Major, which was probably bulls–t, knowing that U.K. elections routinely produce parliaments completely out of whack with the popular vote, let alone polls.)
Trump inspires something somewhat unique in the history of democracy: backers who are deeply ashamed of their support and reticent to confess it, even to a stranger. Voters who have the same pride in their candidate as they have in the fart they let slip on a plane and then looked around as if to say, “Alright, which one of you gross people did that?”
And to make it even weirder (a triggering word for them, apologies), the Trump team points to it as a feature and not a bug. They flaunt these plane-farters as the ace up Trump’s sleeve. This mortified, “self-silencing” demographic know what they’re about to do is unforgivable, but they will deliver the win in November!
And they might be right.
I can see next year’s bumper sticker now: “Don’t blame me, I voted for Kamala!… (only I really didn’t, I just say I did because I know Trump is a national embarrassment, sorry not sorry tee hee)”
